World Championship · Geneva · 24 Nov – 12 Dec 2026

Sindarov vs Gukesh: who takes the title?

Move the assumptions and the forecast updates. Enter results during the match to update the odds for the remaining games.

Compression is how much of the rating gap we assume disappears in a World Championship match. When two players spend months preparing only for each other, they have tended to perform closer together than their Elo ratings predict. At 50% compression, a 72-point rating gap is treated as 36 points; at 0%, ratings are taken at face value.

Javokhir Sindarov

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Goes to tiebreak

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Gukesh D

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Assumptions

Sindarov's rating

Gukesh's rating

Match compression

How much of the Elo edge disappears once both players prepare for each other. Guests: 50%. Past title matches: about 28%, with wide uncertainty.

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Classical draw rate

Title matches 2008–2024: 70.6% of 119 games drawn.

White's advantage

Extra expected score with White. 2700+ games: White scores about 55.7%.

White in Game 1

Colours are drawn at the opening ceremony on 22 Nov. Game 1's White player has White in every odd game.

Edge kept in tiebreaks

Share of the classical edge the favourite keeps in rapid. It shrinks further in the 10+5, blitz and sudden-death stages.

Likely final scores

The match stops when a player reaches 7½, so early finishes show up as scores like 7½–4½.

Match scoresheet

Tap a game to enter its result: Sindarov win, draw, Gukesh win, then clear. The forecast treats entered games as played.

Score: Sindarov 0 – 0 Gukesh

How it works. Each classical game gets win, draw and loss chances from the compressed rating gap, the draw rate and the colour edge. The page then computes every possible path through the 14 games exactly, including the early stop at 7½. A 7–7 tie goes to the official tiebreak: four 15+10 games, two 10+5, two 3+2, then single 3+2 games until one is decisive.

Data. Ratings from the November 2026 FIDE list. 12-month performance estimated from rating changes and game counts since November 2025. Market price from Kalshi on 3 Nov 2026. Page last updated 8 Nov 2026.